Last updated: September 26, 2026, using USCIS data through Q3 FY2026 (April to June 2026)

The EB-2 NIW approval share of decisions was 55.3% in the third quarter of Fiscal Year 2026, the third straight quarterly increase after bottoming out at 35.7% in Q4 FY2025. USCIS does not publish an official “approval rate.” What follows is the approval share of decisions, meaning approvals divided by approvals plus denials in the same period, computed directly from USCIS’s own quarterly Form I-140 report.

EB-2 NIW Approval Data by Fiscal Year

Source: USCIS “Form I-140 by Fiscal Year, Quarter and Case Status,” Office of Performance and Quality. This report is the only USCIS publication that breaks the national interest waiver out as its own line item (E21-NIW) separate from general EB-2. The series starts at FY2022; no NIW-specific breakout exists for FY2021 or earlier, so treat any pre-2022 NIW figure you see elsewhere as an estimate, not a government number.

Approval share here means approvals divided by approvals plus denials issued that year, not approvals divided by total receipts. This distinction matters because dividing approvals by receipts produces a very different, lower number, especially in years with a growing backlog. For FY2024, approvals over decisions gives 71.0%, while approvals over receipts gives roughly 43%, since more than two-thirds of that year’s receipts were still pending at year end and get treated as denials in that calculation even though they weren’t decided yet. Neither number is “your odds” of approval. Both measure throughput on a mixed docket of new and older filings, not the outcome of any single filing cohort.

Quarterly Trend, FY2025 Through Q3 FY2026

The approval share has risen for three consecutive quarters since its Q4 FY2025 low. It’s still below the 62 to 67% range seen in early FY2025, so the recovery is real but partial as of this update.

What Actually Changed: the January 2025 Policy Alert

On January 15, 2025, USCIS issued Policy Alert PA-2025-03, updating its guidance at 6 USCIS-PM F.5 on National Interest Waivers, effective immediately for pending and future filings. Read the policy alert directly. It states that:

• A petitioner must first establish eligibility for the underlying EB-2 classification (advanced degree professional or exceptional ability) before the NIW itself is evaluated.
• Any exceptional-ability claim must directly relate to the specific proposed endeavor, not general career achievement.
• Broad claims about economic benefit or job creation, without specific documented proof, do not establish eligibility, particularly for entrepreneurs and founders.

One fact worth being precise about: the approval share started declining in FY2024, a full year before this policy alert took effect. The data does not support the claim that this policy update caused the drop. It’s a real and relevant update to how officers evaluate cases today, but it doesn’t explain the earlier trend.

What the Numbers Don’t Tell You

These figures describe overall conditions across tens of thousands of filings a year. They say nothing about whether your specific petition, with your specific evidence, will get approved. A well-documented case that clearly satisfies all three prongs of Matter of Dhanasar has always had a strong shot, in a 95% approval-share year or a 45% one, because officers evaluate the individual record in front of them, not the quarterly average.

What the backlog numbers do tell you is that petitions are taking longer. Pending cases grew from 18,599 at the end of FY2022 to 74,392 at the end of FY2025, a fourfold increase, mostly because filings roughly tripled over the same period while USCIS processing capacity did not scale at the same pace.

If you want help preparing your petition documentation or recommendation letters, Green Card For Alien writes and organizes the paperwork. We don’t provide legal advice or representation.